Well, it’s finally happened…the “Buy Gold” advertisements have exceeded the number of “Buy Herbal Viagra” advertisements! If I can’t sleep, I turn on the television, someone is selling me gold. I check my email, more gold advertisements. At work, someone “advises” me to “buy gold today because it’s recession proof.” Then there was the caveat; “buy the gold mines now, not the gold stocks”…what??
What is all the hype? Am I truly missing the boat??
Considering the situation seriously, I needed to do my research.
First I looked at the history of gold:
Year | High | Low | Close |
12/31/60 | $36.50 | $35.20 | $36.50 |
12/31/61 | $36.50 | $35.15 | $35.50 |
12/31/62 | $35.50 | $35.20 | $35.35 |
12/31/63 | $35.42 | $35.25 | $35.25 |
12/31/64 | $35.35 | $35.25 | $35.35 |
12/31/65 | $35.50 | $35.25 | $35.50 |
12/31/66 | $35.50 | $35.30 | $35.40 |
12/31/67 | $35.50 | $35.27 | $35.50 |
12/31/68 | $43.50 | $35.85 | $43.50 |
12/31/69 | $43.50 | $35.20 | $35.40 |
12/31/70 | $39.90 | $34.90 | $37.60 |
12/31/71 | $44.20 | $37.70 | $43.80 |
12/31/72 | $70.30 | $44.30 | $65.20 |
12/31/73 | $126.30 | $64.20 | $114.50 |
12/31/74 | $195.50 | $116.80 | $195.20 |
12/31/75 | $199.10 | $138.50 | $150.80 |
12/31/76 | $151.00 | $109.50 | $145.10 |
12/31/77 | $180.70 | $136.50 | $179.20 |
12/31/78 | $264.20 | $178.90 | $244.90 |
12/31/79 | $578.70 | $233.80 | $578.70 |
12/31/80 | $850.00 | $495.20 | $641.20 |
12/31/81 | $647.10 | $415.50 | $430.80 |
12/31/82 | $522.80 | $318.70 | $484.50 |
12/31/83 | $545.60 | $398.50 | $415.00 |
12/31/84 | $435.70 | $328.70 | $331.30 |
12/31/85 | $364.10 | $301.60 | $354.20 |
12/31/86 | $471.80 | $351.80 | $435.20 |
12/31/87 | $531.70 | $419.40 | $522.90 |
12/31/88 | $522.20 | $421.90 | $441.00 |
12/31/89 | $448.50 | $383.00 | $433.40 |
12/31/90 | $451.80 | $370.90 | $423.80 |
12/31/91 | $432.70 | $369.10 | $379.90 |
12/31/92 | $384.60 | $353.10 | $356.30 |
12/31/93 | $435.30 | $349.70 | $419.20 |
12/31/94 | $425.80 | $396.40 | $409.80 |
12/31/95 | $422.90 | $385.20 | $385.60 |
12/31/96 | $401.30 | $367.80 | $367.80 |
12/31/97 | $365.20 | $282.50 | $288.80 |
12/31/98 | $313.80 | $274.10 | $288.00 |
12/31/99 | $326.00 | $252.30 | $287.50 |
12/31/00 | $316.45 | $264.00 | $272.15 |
12/31/01 | $294.80 | $255.30 | $278.70 |
12/31/02 | $349.25 | $278.20 | $346.70 |
12/31/03 | $416.00 | $322.75 | $414.80 |
12/31/04 | $455.75 | $373.50 | $438.10 |
12/31/05 | $540.90 | $410.40 | $517.20 |
12/29/06 | $730.00 | $516.75 | $636.30 |
12/31/07 | $845.40 | $601.70 | $833.20 |
1/14/08 | $914.00 | $833.30 | $904.80 |
Then I charted it:
As I reviewed my research, I remembered business school 101 “BUY LOW, SELL HIGH.” I wondered what the buyers in 1980 felt like, paying up to $850.00 only to see it drop to a low of $252.00 in 1999.
My questions are:
- Where were these advisers in 1999 when gold was at a 19 year low?
- If it goes up much higher will the economy be alive? Are we in a depression at that point?
- If the value of gold is an inverse reflection of the value of the dollar what does that say about our economy?
- Should I buy gold?